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JAY's DRAFT VALUES
players who will have a better NFL career than many drafted higher than them

updated: 03/24/08      numbers in red are among the best in the draft class

Flacco
QB
Delaware

 Flacco has a very strong arm.  In addition, when he decides to make a throw, his release is very quick.  For a big kid, he moves well in the pocket, ala Ben Roethlisberger.  I believe he has the biggest upside of all quarterbacks in this draft, although he will need time to catch up to the speed of the game in the NFL.  This is quarterback I would target in the draft.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'6.3" 236 - 4.78 1.71 2.79 4.27 - 6.82 28.5" 9'2"
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2007 331 521 4263 63.5% 8.20 84 23 5 NA 144.90

Johnson
QB
San Diego

 While definitely a great athlete, Johnson is also a good passer.  He is much more than an athlete playing quarterback.  Last year he threw 43 touchdowns and only 1 interception.  And, no that is not a misprint. He also ran for 726 yards (7.2 yards per rush).   In time, Johnson could be what Vick was suppose to be.  Johnson will grow into one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'2.6" 213 - 4.44 1.58 2.63 4.42 - 7.56 33.5" 9'2"
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2007 206 301 2988 68.4 9.93 80 43 1 11 198.30

O'Connell
QB
San Diego St

 O'connell is a tall, athletic kid who throws very well on the move.  He will need time to develop but has too much upside to risk on a team's development squad (where he can be plucked off by another team).  At 6'5", O'connell ran for 408 yards his senior year.  I believe he will be a Matt Hasselbeck-type of quarterback down the line.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'5" 223 - 4.57 1.60 2.71 4.38 - 7.01 31" 9'5"
YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2007 257 439 3063 58.5 6.98 97 15 8 30 124.78

Johnson
RB
East Carolina

 I know it's not "football knowledge savvy" to place too much emphasis on workout numbers, but come on, a 4.24 forty!  At the Combine even, not on campus under ideal conditions.  Johnson was a marginal first round selection before this workout.  Since it, analyses have concentrated on his lack of inside running ability.  But the kid can catch.  The kid can run outside.  And the kid may be the fastest player in football.  I also believe he will run inside better than many think.  Worst case, he can be for a team what the Saints wanted Bush to be.  Johnson may not be an every-down back, but he will be a very valuable member of a team whether carrying the ball, or having defenses keeping track of his every move fearful of him going the distance at any moment.  A smart team will grab him in round one.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'11" 197 - 4.24 1.40 2.41 - - - 35" 10'10"
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 236 1423 6.0 NA 17 37 528 14.3 NA 6 NA NA

Forte
RB
Tulane

 If I were a GM and needed a full time starting running back, I would skip drafting any running back not named McFadden in round one and draft Forte in round two.  He is going to be a top NFL starter.  He runs tough, has more speed than originally believed, and catches the ball very well.  He is the total package.  Unfortunately, we may have to wait a bit to see it because he could be drafted as a backup to an established starter.  
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'1.3" 217 23 4.46 1.49 2.55 4.23 11.49 6.84 33" 9'10"
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 361 2127 5.9 NA 23 32 282 8.8 NA 0 NA NA

Choice
RB
Georgia Tech

 Choice runs tough between the tackles and is a natural running back.  He makes sharp cuts and has good, but not great speed.  At minimum, Choice is the move-the-chains part of the two-headed running back in vogue in today's NFL.  Best case, he is a full time starter.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'10.4" 215 20 4.50 1.50 2.55 - - 6.88 34" 9'11"
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 261 1379 5.3 NA 10 14 107 7.6 NA 0 NA NA

Parmele
RB
Toledo

 Parmele is a shifty runner with good speed, tremendous athleticism, and the ability to make people miss.  He will be a good change-of-pace back in the NFL.  In a draft deep at running back, Parmele could fall through the cracks, but he should have a nice NFL career.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'11.4" 224 19 4.47 1.48 2.54 4.29 - 6.94 41.5" 10'5"
YEAR ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 276 1511 5.5 54 14 17 157 9.2 28 1 NA NA

Caldwell
WR
Florida

 This is a strange draft for wide receivers.  There are more questions about the first round receivers who will be counted on as #1 receivers than there is for the receivers who will be solid number two or threes.  Caldwell is the best of the #2's.  During Senior Bowl week he continually blew bye corners in practice.  He has very good hands, and terrific speed and quickness.  I have no doubts about him developing into a good #2 receiver.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'0.2" 204 - 4.31 1.55 2.55 4.11 - 6.75 33" 10'4"
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 56 761 13.6 NA 7 12 58 4.8 1 0 NA NA

Hawkins
WR
California

 As a fan of the show Jericho, I 'gotta' like him for his last name alone.  Hawkins is a player I absolutely love in this draft.  In Senior Bowl practices he routinely made incredible catches.  He was a highlight reel all by himself.  He followed up that display with a very good Senior Bowl Game.  Hawkins isn't the fastest receiver, isn't the biggest receiver, isn't the quickest receiver, which makes him a bit of a risk when compared to others available in this draft.  He makes great catches, in part, because he doesn't get the same separation as those bigger, faster, quicker receivers.  He will need a quarterback who trusts him and isn't afraid to throw into tight windows for him to reach his full potential.  However, if he is paired with such a quarterback, when looked at 10 years down the road, he just may be considered the best receiver to come out of this draft.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'11" 187 14 4.47 1.58 2.64 4.28 - 6.99 33.5" 10'0"
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 72 858 11.9 NA 6 7 60 8.6 NA 0 NA NA

Avery
WR
Houston

 Avery has a rep of being a one-dimensional receiver who runs fly patterns.  He is, however, considered a very good one-dimensional receiver because he gets open deep and catches the ball very well.  I believe there is more to his game.  He is a tough kid who will run curls, ins and outs when asked to do so in the NFL, and will catch the ball.  In other words, I expect Avery to blossom in the NFL as an all around receiver who is a home run threat.  He won't be a #1, but will be a very good #2.  He will need some time to round out his game.  He is also a good return man.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'11" 192 16 4.40 1.56 2.60
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 91 1456 16.0 NA 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Jackson
WR
Appl State

 Jackson had a very good post-season.  He is a dynamite return man with great speed and quickness.  He also showed very reliable hands making him more than just a special teams prospect.  Jackson will be a solid slot receiver.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
5'9.2" 185 - 4.31 1.53 2.54 - 11.22 6.81 29.5" 10'2"
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 30 688 22.9 68 8 5 74 14.8 24 1 NA NA

Hubbard
WR
Wisconsin

 Want a sleeper who could be available on day two, but turn into a solid NFL starter?  How about Hubbard.  He only played 8 games his senior year but has an excellent combination of size, speed, quickness, and athleticism.  He needs better concentration to become a more reliable target, but has shown good hands in long spurts.  He also comes from a school that has produced NFL receivers like Chris Chambers and Lee Evans.  If drafted in the right situation (one where he has a chance to see the field), Hubbard could be a pleasant surprise.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'2.6" 221 15 4.38 1.53 2.56 6.93 39.5" 10'6"
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 14 305 21.8 NA 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0

Shields
WR
Richmond

 Shields is one of the most intriguing wide receiver prospects in this draft.  He injured his knee early in this senior season but still is among the all time leading receivers at Richmond.  The book on Shields was that he had excellent hands, runs good routes, and is a tough kid who gets good YAC.  The knock on him was suspect speed, especially coming off a knee injury.  Then he worked out.  He has great speed.  In addition he is a tremendous athlete with good quickness and the ability to make sharp cuts.   This is the type of data that I've found results in a better NFL player than most project.  He is a player on the field who many thought did it with limited measureables.  Then he added a great workout to his on-field skill.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'0.6" 194 19 4.38 1.51 2.56 3.96 10.87 6.67 37.5" 10'8"
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 14 125 8.9 NA 0 1 -2 -2.0 -2 0 NA NA

Arthur
WR
Akron

 I am still waiting on Arthur's Pro Day to see if I feel his potential is even better than I have here.  Every year I identify a receiver who catches the ball very well, has good skills, but is not in the class of other players in the draft in terms of athletic skills.  This is a player who will be signed as a street free agent and has the ability to stick around and eventually be a contributor down the line.  Last year it was Dominique Zeigler.  He hung around the 49ers all year on their practice squad.  This year it's Arthur.  He has good size, excellent hands, and makes tough catches.  Whether drafted late or signed as a free agent, this kid will be tough for a team to cut.  Down the line he can become a contributor as a #4 wideout.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'3.4" 228 - - - - - - - - -
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 86 1171 13.6 51 10 4 3 0.8 6 0 0 0

Cottam
TE
Tennessee

 Cottam only played 5 games his senior year, but showed excellent hands in Senior Bowl practices and had a touchdown catch in the game.  Cottam is a big tight end at almost 6'8" and 270 pounds.  For a man his size he has shown the ability to develop into a good blocker.  With questions about Fred Davis as a first rounder and Keller more of a bulk up wide receiver than true tight end, if I needed a tight end in this draft I would target Cottam in round two or three and go a different way earlier in the draft.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'7.4" 270 24 4.63 1.57 2.61 - - - 33" -
YEAR REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
2007 5 125 25.0 NA 1 0 0 0.0 0 0 NA NA

Cherlius
OT
Boston Col

 Cherlius has a nasty streak.  He looked very good during Senior Bowl week.  He may drop a bit in the draft because he is a right tackle not a left tackle, but he will be a very good right tackle. 
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'6.3" 314 24 5.21 1.76 3.00 4.82 - 7.60 23" 8'6"
SENIOR BOWL ONE-ON-ONE as observed by Jay Goldberg
vs Ellis 0-1
vs Davis 1-1
vs Jackson 4-1

Nicks
OT
Nebraska

 Nicks is very big, very strong, and very quick for a man his size.  He is also a good athlete and can play either tackle or guard.  He will have a good NFL career.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'4.7" 341 31 5.18 1.80 2.98 4.68 7.91 25.5" 9'1"
SENIOR BOWL ONE-ON-ONE as observed by Jay Goldberg
vs Avril 1-1
vs Ellis 1-0

Cousins
OT
UTEP

 Cousins is an athletic tackle with good speed.  After the top left tackles come off the board, this is the kid I believe has a chance to develop into a quality starting left tackle down the line.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'4" 308 23 5.11 1.77 2.94 4.80 - 7.90 24.5" 8'11"
SENIOR BOWL ONE-ON-ONE as observed by Jay Goldberg
vs Robertson 1-3
vs Gilberry 3-0

Zuttah
OG
Rutgers

 Zuttah was a right tackle in college who projects to a guard in the NFL.  He is very strong, very quick, and has good speed.  He was considered a smart, overachieving type in college but is one of the most physically-gifted guards in the draft.  This kid will be a steal for a team in the draft.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'3.2" 303 35 4.99 1.73 2.87 4.54 - 7.59 26.5" 8'11"

Pollak
OC
Arizona State

 Pollak was the only player at the Senior Bowl who handled Sedrick Ellis in one-on-one drills to a virtual draw.  He followed that up with a tremendous workout at the Combine.  He also played very well at Arizona State.  Pollak is the best center in this draft bt may not be the first center that comes off the board.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'3.4" 301 29 4.98 1.73 2.88 4.47 - 7.49 28" 9'3"
SENIOR BOWL ONE-ON-ONE as observed by Jay Goldberg
vs Ellis 2-2

Laws
DT
Notre Dame

 Laws hustles all the time and makes a lot of tackles.  He is also strong, quick and fast for a 300 pound man.  Laws can play inside in a 4-3 defense, but also has the skill set to play end in a 3-4.  Laws is one of those players that looks like an overachiever, but isn't, he's just very good and very talented.  Would I draft him in round?  As Tom Cullen would say, Laws yes!
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'0.6" 304 35 5.13 1.74 2.94 4.49 - 7.37 30.5" 8'7"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 112 4 7 8 0 5

Moore
DT
Maryland

 Moore is a great athlete who has not transferred his enormous skills from practice to the game consistently yet.  However, with time and good coaching he could be a stud in the NFL.  The best thing that could happen to Moore is that he goes in round three and has to work to get a big contract at the end of his rookie deal.  He needs work on his technique.  So far he has gotten by on his physical skills.  I'm betting on this kid putting it together and being a very good NFL player.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'4" 305 31 4.84 1.62 2.70 4.55 - 7.73 28" 8'9"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 62 6 1 8.5 0 1

Rubin
DT
Iowa State

 Rubin was unblockable during Senior Bowl drills and followed that up with a very good game.  He can play inside in a 4-3 and also could play the nose in a 3-4.  He is a strong kid who is a good athlete for a nose tackle.  I expect Rubin to grow into a top run-stuffing tackle who can also push the pocket and get pressure on the quarterback up the middle.  Rubin is an underrated prospect heading into the draft.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'2.6" 315 35 5.20 1.74 2.96 5.00 - 8.05 28" 8'10"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 42 1.5 0 4 0 1

Shirley
DT
Fresno State

 Shirley is a monster of a man who is a very good run-stuffer.  He had off-the-field issues which limited him to 3 games in 2007 (was suspended).  However, a 330 pound player who runs a 5.0 forty, has a short shuttle time equal to Felix Jones, Rashard Mendenhall and DeSean Jackson, and a 3 cone time like Devin Thomas doesn't grow on trees.  If the he gets drafted onto a veteran team with good discipline, he should develop into a top NFL nose tackle.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'5.1" 329 25 5.02 1.72 2.92 4.18 - 7.16 34" 9'7"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 7 1.5 0 3 0 0

Langford
DE
Hampton

 Langford is a rare big defensive end.  He has good pass rush moves and will be a solid end in a 3-4 defense.  Langford played very well in the East West Shrine All Star Game showing he could step up in competition and be the only player who could put consistent pressure on quarterbacks.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'5.4" 287 24 4.95 1.65 2.84 4.69 - 7.72 27" 9'6"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 72 6 12 13.5 0 0

Jones
DE
E Michigan

 Jones played out of position at defensive tackle in his senior year.  He has played well at end in the college post-season.  He could be a sleeper for a team as a rotation player at end who kicks inside in the nickel ala Justin Tuck of the Giants for pass rush purposes.  Jones should have a nice NFL career.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'5.2" 273 18 4.76 1.59 2.73 4.32 - 7.29 30.5" 10'3"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 70 3.5 10 19.5 0 3

Johnston
DE
Gardner-Webb

 Johnston is a deep sleeper.  He has good size and showed good pass rushing skills and good pursuit in the Hula Bowl.  The step-up in competition did not effect him.  He is a top athlete for the position with speed, quickness and athleticism.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'5.1" 274 - 4.66 1.51 2.66 4.18 - 6.96 35" -
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 74 6 22 24 0 NA

Gholston
DE/OLB
Ohio State

 How is a top five or ten pick making a list of under-valued players?  Because he will be that good.  Gholston should be Miami's pick at number one in the draft.  He will be a dominate pass rusher like recent defensive end to outside 3-4 linebackers converts Ware and Merriman.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'3" 266 37 4.58 1.58 2.68 4.40 - 7.12 42" 10'5"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TFL INT PD
2007 37 14 NA 15.5 NA NA

Howard
DE/OLB
Georgia

 Howard is clearly too small to play defensive end in the NFL, although I thought the same thing about the Colts' Robert Mathis.  Howard is ideally suited to play outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense.  He is a top athlete and has great speed for a man his size.  He also has very good pass rushing skills.  Howard will be a long time quality NFL starter.
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'0.4" 237 27 4.45 1.47 2.52 - - - 36" 9'11"
YEAR TACKLES SACKS QBH TLF INT PD
2007 41 10.5 1 12 0 3

Woodyard
OLB
Kentucky

 Woodyard is a very active player with the ability to make plays sideline-to-sideline.  He has excellent speed and quickness.  He is also a tough kid who likes to hit.  He is perfect as a WILL linebacker on a team that emphasizes speed over size.  He looked very good during Senior Bowl practices making tackle after tackle in drills.  However, in the game he had some very good moments, but also missed some tackles.   He will need to play under a little more control to become a more sure tackler in the NFL, but I believe that will be an easy adjustment for this kid. 
HEIGHT WEIGHT BENCH 40 10 20 SHORT LONG 3 CONE VERT BROAD
6'0.3" 227 -